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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory 8pm

Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory 8pm

  BULLETIN

Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019

800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

 

…AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY…

Carmelo De Grazia

 

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

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LOCATION…17.7N 56.5W

ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…979 MB…28.91 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

  The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical  Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla.

Carmelo De Grazia Suárez

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..

* St. Maarten

* St. Martin

* St. Barthelemy

* Saba and St. Eustatius

 

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are  possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours

 

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor  the progress of Jerry

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor  products issued by your national meteorological service

   

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located  by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,

longitude 56.5 West.  Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near  17 mph (28 km/h).  A west-northwest to northwest motion at a

decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days.  On the  forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern

Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher  gusts.  Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so, but some

weakening is anticipated by this weekend

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from t he center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80

miles (130 km)

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches)

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch

areas by early Friday

 

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,

with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda

northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.  This rainfall

may produce life-threatening flash floods.  Jerry is forecast to

produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum

amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

 

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the

northern Leeward IslandsThese swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST